New York natural gas case study, Rochester, New York. October 2026

Rochester-area natural gas capacity: the utility's margin is below 5% in 2026, then barely above it

The companies' own tables in their Final long-term plan put RG&E's firm peak day capacity 4.90 percent above its design day demand for 2026, below the 5% thin-margin threshold in Discovery Energy's Outlook Scale, rising to 5.16 percent in 2027 and 5.71 percent in 2029 because design day demand falls while capacity stays flat (calculated by code). The consultant's figure for 2024 was 3.51 percent, which the companies say should read 4.4 percent. The companies reported in June 2026 that no new vulnerable locations have been identified, and design day demand for RG&E is forecast to fall 19% over the forecast period.

4.90%RG&E firm peak day capacity above design day demand, 2026 (calculated from the companies' tables)
5.71%The same difference in 2029 (calculated the same way)
75Heating degree days RG&E plans for on a design day (Rochester)
19%Decrease in RG&E design day demand over the plan's forecast period

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Rochester, NY metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties. The gas utility identified in the record is Rochester Gas and Electric Corporation (RG&E), whose service territory the New York State Public Service Commission describes as centered on the Rochester area; the record read gives no county list for its gas service, and whether New York State Electric & Gas Corporation (NYSEG), National Fuel or National Grid serves part of the metro is not established. RG&E files a joint long-term plan with NYSEG; figures that apply to both companies or to NYSEG are labeled system context.5

Key takeaways

  • The companies' Final plan tables put RG&E's firm peak day capacity 4.90 percent above design day demand in 2026, below the Outlook Scale's 5% thin-margin threshold; the difference is 5.16 percent in 2027 and 5.71 percent in 2029 because capacity stays flat while design day demand falls, not because capacity is added (calculated by code).11
  • The consultant's calculation, recorded in the Commission's January 2025 order, was 3.51 percent in 2024; the companies told the Commission that figure should read 4.4 percent, and that leaving out third-party capacity and marketer-served demand gives 3.5 percent. The consultant also reported 4.82 percent in 2043 for the companies' plan scenario and 9.33 percent for the Reference Case.112
  • The companies told the Commission they use five percent and two percent as guidelines for reserve margins for all operating areas, and the consultant said gas utilities do not generally add a reserve margin on top of a design day standard.1
  • RG&E relies on winter delivered citygate peaking contracts for peaking supply; the passage read gives no volume or expiry date.1
  • The companies' table of vulnerable locations, places where gas may not be deliverable safely and reliably within five years, lists RG&E locations at Hamlin/Kendall and Greece and at the Avon citygate, the last of them supply-related;14 in June 2026 the companies said no new vulnerable locations have been identified since the Final plan.4
  • The Reference Case assumes growth in residential and commercial customer counts ends in 2026 and the plan shows RG&E design day demand falling 19% over the forecast period, so the record shows no growth driver.3
  • The companies reported that no firm customers were curtailed in recent winters and that interruptible customers ceased using gas when asked; the winters are not dated in the passage.6

Which parts of the record fall inside the Rochester metro?

The Commission's order says RG&E's service territory is centered on the Rochester area, while NYSEG's comprises several non-contiguous communities from Orange County to the Canadian border. The Final plan says RG&E serves approximately 323,000 customers in 7 counties and 25 communities around Rochester, but names no counties in its text.14 The record read does not list the counties, so how much of Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties it serves is not shown. The companies' demand forecast for RG&E uses economic data for the Rochester metropolitan area, which fits a Rochester-centered system but does not list counties.511

Where Item in the record
Inside the metro RG&E's service territory centered on the Rochester area; RG&E's demand forecast is built on Rochester metropolitan area economic data11
Outside the metro, system context NYSEG's territory and vulnerable locations (Lansing, Canandaigua, Goshen); reserve margin guidelines and design day standard for both companies
Named RG&E vulnerable locations (general geography) Hamlin/Kendall, Greece and the Avon citygate; the Final plan does not say which counties they are in14
Unclear Livingston, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties; any other gas utility in the metro

RG&E and NYSEG record items by whether they fall inside the Rochester metro (OMB delineation). Sources: Commission order, Case 23-G-0437, January 2025.5

System context: the reserve margin guidelines and the vulnerable-location definition apply to both companies, and are not allocated to the metro. The Final plan's design day is 75 heating degree days for Rochester and 71 for NYSEG's Brewster and Goshen areas.2

How much spare gas capacity does Rochester have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Rochester N Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage Empire Pipeline Empire Pipeline Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Rochester. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

The consultant's final report to the Commission's staff says RG&E holds upstream pipeline capacity on Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage, Empire Pipeline and TransCanada PipeLines, and storage on Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage and Empire Pipeline; the report gives no counties.13

The Final plan's Table III-3 sets RG&E's design day for Rochester at 75 heating degree days (71 for NYSEG's Brewster and Goshen areas).2 Their Final plan tables give RG&E a Reference Case firm peak day capacity of 529,822 Dth per day in every year from 2024 to 2043, of which 84,722 Dth per day is supply provided by marketers, against a design day demand of 506,391 Dth per day in 2024, 505,073 in 2026 and 501,180 in 2029. Dividing the difference by design day demand, by code, gives the following.11

Year Capacity above design day demand, RG&E, Reference Case
2024 4.63%
2026 4.90%
2027 5.16%
2028 5.44%
2029 5.71%

Difference between firm peak day capacity and design day demand for RG&E, Reference Case, as a percent of design day demand, calculated by code from Tables E-3 and E-5 of the companies' Final plan appendices. The capacity and demand inputs come from the companies' 2023-2024 winter supply plan.11

The 2026 value is below the Outlook Scale's 5% thin-margin threshold. RG&E's own Reference Case tables project the margin above 5% from 2027, because capacity stays flat while design day demand falls; the percentages are calculated by code from those tables. The record read shows no scheduled capacity addition, and the companies' own guideline is five percent and two percent.111

The consultant's calculation recorded in the Commission's order gives 3.51 percent for 2024. The companies told the Commission that figure is a typo and should be 4.4 percent; the same tables give 4.42 percent when the difference is divided by capacity instead of demand. The companies put the figure at 3.5 percent when third-party capacity and marketer-served demand are left out. The consultant also reported 4.82 percent for 2043 in the companies' plan scenario, where fixed pipeline and storage costs fall with design day demand, against 9.33 percent in the Reference Case.112 The figures come from the 2023-24 review of the plan; the companies' 2026 update says updated customer counts, annual demand and design day demand are comparable to the Final plan.1

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The record read shows no growth driver. The Reference Case assumes growth in residential and commercial customer counts ends in 2026 and in municipal and industrial customer counts in 2029, citing the state's All-Electric Buildings Act, and the 2026 update keeps those assumptions; the plan shows RG&E design day demand falling 19% over the forecast period.3

A search of other official records found no documented new gas load in the five metro counties: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator there, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) queue of September 30, 2026 has no natural gas entry and no data center entry in any of them, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 found no pipeline notice naming any of the five counties.9

What should Rochester-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility. Confirm whether each site is served by RG&E or another gas utility; the record read does not list RG&E's gas counties.
  • Firm or interruptible. Interruptible customers are asked to cease using gas when needed; this page does not state the tariff terms because the tariff was not read.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming filings. Track the companies' next annual update and the long-term plan due January 31, 2028.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 outlook gives the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions to, among other areas, the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, a discussion that names regions and not New York counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Rochester gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Rochester-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): the companies' own tables put RG&E's firm peak day capacity 4.90 percent above design day demand in 2026, below the 5% thin-margin threshold, and the margin reaches only 5.16 percent in 2027 because design day demand falls, with no approved or scheduled capacity addition in the record read, although the companies report no new vulnerable locations; the figures are for RG&E's whole system. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: the companies' next long-term plan filing, due January 31, 2028, and the annual update before it, with updated capacity and design day demand tables; the expiry and replacement of RG&E's winter delivered citygate peaking contracts; the reserve margin study the consultant recommended, and any change to the vulnerable-locations table for RG&E (Hamlin/Kendall, Greece, the Avon citygate).

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

Frequently asked questions

Will Rochester businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. The companies reported that no firm customers were curtailed in recent winters, and in June 2026 that no new vulnerable locations have been identified. The companies' own tables put RG&E's capacity margin at 4.90 percent in 2026, below 5%, and 5.16 percent in 2027. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Is there spare gas capacity in the Rochester area on the coldest day?

The companies' own tables put RG&E's firm peak day capacity 4.90 percent above design day demand in 2026 and 5.16 percent in 2027, calculated by code. The consultant's figure for 2024, recorded in the Commission's January 2025 order, was 3.51 percent, which the companies say should be 4.4 percent. These are whole-system figures, not Commission findings, and not the metro alone.

How does RG&E get gas on the coldest days?

The Commission's order says RG&E relies on winter delivered citygate peaking contracts for peaking supply. The passage gives no volume or expiry date.

Is Rochester's gas demand growing?

The record read shows no growth driver. The plan shows RG&E design day demand falling 19% over the forecast period, and the Reference Case assumes customer growth ends in 2026 and 2029. A search of EIA's September 2026 generator inventory, the New York Independent System Operator's queue and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notices found no planned gas-fired generator, data center or pipeline project in the five metro counties.

Are there places in the Rochester area where gas may not be delivered reliably?

The companies' Final plan table of vulnerable locations lists RG&E locations at Hamlin/Kendall and Greece and at the Avon citygate, the last of them supply-related.14 In June 2026 the companies said no new ones have been identified since the Final plan.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

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Notes

  1. Commission Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Directing Further Actions, Case 23-G-0437, issued January 23, 2025: PDF 22 (reserve margin and the consultant's calculation), PDF 11 (peaking contracts). The percentages are the consultant's calculation as summarized by the Commission. [RGE-01 to RGE-04] ↩
  2. NYSEG and RG&E Final Gas Long-Term Plan report (April 26, 2024), manual download by Sam, PDF 46 (Table III-3, Design Day HDD: Rochester 75; Brewster 71; Goshen 71). The Commission's January 2025 order states that the companies plan for 71 heating degree days on design day (PDF 9); that general statement is not RG&E's figure. [RGE-37, RGE-08] ↩
  3. NYSEG and RG&E Annual Report Relative to Long-Term Gas Plan, June 1, 2026, PDF 13 (forecast assumptions); CRA Final Report (May 21, 2024), PDF 7 (19% decrease). Utility and consultant statements. [RGE-10, RGE-11, RGE-13] ↩
  4. Same order, PDF 12 (vulnerable locations); annual report PDF 10; the Final plan report names the RG&E locations (note 14). [RGE-05, RGE-06, RGE-09] ↩
  5. Same order, PDF 9 (territory description); classification in rochester_metro_classification.csv. Monroe County's place in the metro is general geography, not a quotation. [RGE-07] ↩
  6. CRA Final Report, PDF 72 (firm customers not curtailed; reported from the 2023-2024 Winter Plan). [RGE-12] ↩
  7. Not established, and left out of the page: RG&E's gas counties and any other gas utility in the metro counties (a 2022 DPS utilities-by-county table was saved but its layout cannot be read reliably by code); the expiry and volume of the citygate peaking contracts; cost allocation and rate case positions; the tariff interruption order; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not captured; next capture about March 2027); supply events since 2020 beyond the companies' statement above. The Final plan report was downloaded (note 14); the executive summary has not been.
  8. Next long-term plan filing due January 31, 2028. [RGE-14]
  9. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties by code; the New York Independent System Operator Interconnection Queue (September 30, 2026), filtered by county in code; and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, all computed by code (rochester_calculations.csv). A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [RGE-15, RGE-16, RGE-17, RGE-18] ↩
  10. R3 not established, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, the NYISO queue where New York applies, a Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, and utility and pipeline-company pages): state air permit records, FERC eLibrary filings, each utility's own large-load request list and county economic development filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.
  11. NYSEG and RG&E Final Long-Term Plan, Appendices A to G (April 26, 2024), manual download by Sam: PDF 192 (Table E-3, design day demand), PDF 194 (Table E-5, firm peak day capacity and its source note), PDF 161 (Table D-69), PDF 187 (Rochester metropolitan area economic data), PDF 57 (plan scenario assumption). The percentages are calculated by code from these tables (rochester_calculations.csv); the Appendix E inputs come from the companies' 2023-2024 winter supply plan. [RGE-25 to RGE-27, RGE-31 to RGE-34] ↩
  12. CRA Final Report (May 21, 2024), PDF 76 (3.51%, 9.33% and 4.82%); Commission order of January 23, 2025, PDF 129 (the companies' comments: 4.4 and 3.5 percent). Consultant and company statements as recorded; not Commission findings. [RGE-28 to RGE-30, RGE-35] ↩
  13. CRA Final Report (May 21, 2024), PDF 66 and 67 (the sentence begins at the foot of PDF 66); consultant report to DPS Staff, system-wide for RG&E. [RGE-36] ↩
  14. NYSEG and RG&E Final Gas Long-Term Plan report (April 26, 2024), Case 23-G-0437, manual download by Sam: PDF 18 (RG&E serves approximately 323,000 customers in 7 counties and 25 communities around Rochester; the counties are shown on a map only), PDF 33 (Table II-7, vulnerable locations: RG&E Hamling/Kendall and Greece, as printed, and the RG&E Avon Citygate, listed as supply-related). Company statements; county placement of the towns is general geography. [RGE-38 to RGE-40] ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. New York State Public Service Commission, Case 23-G-0437, Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Directing Further Actions. Link
  2. NYSEG and RG&E, Case 23-G-0437, Final Long-Term Plan Appendices A to G, April 26, 2024. File downloaded by Sam from the DPS document list.
  3. New York State Department of Public Service, Case 23-G-0437, CRA Final Report. Link
  4. NYSEG and RG&E, Case 23-G-0437, Annual Report Relative to Long-Term Gas Plan (2026 update). Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link
  8. New York Independent System Operator, Interconnection Queue, September 30, 2026. Link