Pennsylvania natural gas case study, York, Pennsylvania. October 2026

York-area natural gas capacity: a thin firm margin and new capacity that arrives after winter 2026-27

Columbia Gas PA's February 2026 gas supply filing prints firm capacity 18.1 MDth per day above firm design-day demand of 635.5 MDth per day for winter 2026-27, about 2.8% and below the Outlook Scale's 5% thin-margin threshold, for its whole system; new Texas Eastern capacity for the York market is projected for November 2027.

About 2.8%Whole-system 2026-27 firm capacity above demand (18.1 of 635.5 MDth per day), calculated from Columbia Gas PA figures
About 102.6%Columbia Gas PA's stated 2029-30 capacity as a share of projected firm demand, whole system
About 81%Columbia Gas PA's stated share of design-day capacity provided by Columbia Gas Transmission, whole system
2027Texas Eastern capacity for York, FERC-certificated February 2026, expected in service in 2027

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the York-Hanover, PA metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): York County only. The serving utility, Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Inc. (Columbia Gas PA), lists York County in its tariff territory, including Hanover, York, Red Lion and many townships; UGI Utilities, Inc. (UGI Gas) lists two York County townships. The capacity figures below are for Columbia Gas PA's whole system, so items outside the metro are labeled system context.5

Key takeaways

  • Columbia Gas PA said in its February 2026 gas supply filing that its firm design-day demand for Sales and CHOICE customers is 635.5 MDth per day in contract year 2026-27 against net firm capacity of 652.3 MDth per day, a schedule for its whole system and not the York metro alone.1
  • The filing's own line "Difference: Capacity less Demand" prints 18.1 MDth per day for 2026-27, about 2.8% of demand, calculated from Columbia Gas PA figures; subtracting the table's printed net capacity and demand gives 16.8, about 2.6%. Either figure is below the Outlook Scale's 5% thin-margin threshold.2
  • Columbia Gas PA says its available capacity is approximately 102.6% of projected firm demand for 2029-30, within its policy range of up to 103%; the table's printed difference for that year is 16.6 MDth per day.2
  • Columbia Gas PA said that growth in its York area delivery point means additional capacity is needed, and that new Texas Eastern capacity is projected on line in November 2027: 3,000 Dth per day through October 2028 and 5,000 Dth per day from November 2028, under a precedent agreement. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a certificate for the project on February 25, 2026, and the order says Texas Eastern anticipates placing the facilities in service by November 1, 2027.49
  • The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission approved, without modification, a partial settlement of Columbia Gas PA's 2024 rate case on November 21, 2024: $74 million a year in additional base rate revenue, with the residential class taking 65.5% of it, calculated from Columbia Gas PA figures.7
  • Columbia Gas PA's tariff says it will try to interrupt all interruptible service, issue flow orders and seek voluntary reductions before curtailing, and that emergency reductions for commercial and industrial customers that are not Priority 1 are made without regard to priorities of use, for no more than five business days unless the Commission extends them.8

Which parts of the record fall inside the York metro?

Columbia Gas PA's tariff lists 25 counties. York County, the metro's only county, is among them, with Hanover, York, Red Lion and many townships; UGI Gas also lists two York County townships, Fairview and Newberry. The filings reviewed do not allocate any capacity figure to the county.5

Where Counties
Inside the metro, in Columbia Gas PA's tariff (1) York
Outside the metro, system context (24) The other counties of Columbia Gas PA's territory

Columbia Gas PA's tariff territory, by whether each county is in the York metro (OMB delineation). Source: Columbia Gas PA tariff, Gas - Pa. P.U.C. No. 9, Description of Territory.5

System context: every capacity figure on this page is Columbia Gas PA-wide. The filing says its forward-haul contracts with Texas Eastern serve isolated portions or all of its Uniontown, State College and York area markets, so the Columbia Gas Transmission share on this page describes the whole system, not necessarily York.4

How much spare gas capacity does York have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving York N Texas Eastern Texas Eastern Columbia Gas Transmission Columbia Gas Transmission Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving York. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

Columbia Gas PA's Table 4 sets firm peak-day capacity against the design-day demand of its Sales and CHOICE customers, which it says are about 76% of total design-day demand; the rest is delivery service (GDS) demand, which the table does not compare with capacity.1

Contract year Total firm demand (MDth per day) Net capacity (MDth per day) Printed "Difference: Capacity less Demand" Net capacity minus demand (our subtraction)
2026-27 635.5 652.3 18.1 16.8
2027-28 637.4 656.0 18.5 18.6
2028-29 639.6 658.0 18.4 18.4
2029-30 641.4 658.0 16.6 16.6

Columbia Gas PA's firm peak-day capacity and demand by contract year, system-wide, from Exhibit 5, Table 4 of its February 2026 filing, in MDth per day. The last column is our subtraction of two printed columns.12

The Outlook Scale treats a projected reserve below 5% of design day as a thin margin; every year in the table is below it. The table shows no negative balance and no need date. Columbia Gas PA says it projects sufficient capacity for winter 2026-27, will not seek additional capacity from suppliers for that year, and will review its design-day supply balance again before winter 2027-28. Its design-day risk criterion is 1 in 15 and its company-wide design temperature is minus 5 degrees Fahrenheit.12

What is driving new natural gas demand?

Columbia Gas PA said that its market at the York area delivery point has shown continued growth and needs additional capacity, and it did not tie the growth to a named customer or project.4 A search of other official records found no documented new gas load with a service date in York County: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator there, and PJM's Transition Cycle 1 Phase III list shows eight Pennsylvania projects, all solar or solar with storage.10 News reports describe proposed data centers in York County, but no filing for them with a gas supply or service date was found, so none is claimed here.

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The only capacity addition in Table 4 is Texas Eastern's Appalachia to Market III project, for which Columbia Gas PA has a precedent agreement: 3,000 Dth per day for its York market through October 2028 and 5,000 Dth per day from November 2028, on a 15-year initial term, with the new capacity projected on line in November 2027. Columbia Gas PA says additional capacity is needed to meet projected demand growth at that delivery point. FERC's order of February 25, 2026 in docket CP25-491-000 grants the project a certificate of public convenience and necessity, and the order says Texas Eastern anticipates placing the facilities in service by November 1, 2027; Columbia Gas PA's filing of February 27, 2026 gave November 2027. The project as a whole adds up to 32,000 Dth per day for two distribution customers in Pennsylvania and Delaware, and its pipeline replacement is in Adams and York counties; York County is the metro's only county.9 Either date falls after winter 2026-27, and the margin in Table 4, which already includes the 3.0 and 5.0 MDth per day of this capacity, is below 5% of demand in every year to 2029-30.4

What does this mean for business gas costs?

On November 21, 2024 the Commission approved, without modification, a partial settlement of Columbia Gas PA's base rate case: $74 million a year in additional base rate revenue, instead of the $124.1 million first requested. The settlement says its revenue allocation and rate design are a compromise and endorse no particular cost of service study.7

Rate class group (settlement increase) Dollars per year
RS/RDS (residential) 48,442,452
SGSS1/SCD1/SGDS1 7,287,802
SGSS2/SCD2/SGDS2 8,399,452
SDS/LGSS 5,144,731
LDS/LGSS 4,725,171
MDS/NSS 0
FLEX 392

Settlement revenue allocation by class, Columbia Gas PA-wide (Settlement Appendix B). Total $74,000,000.7

This is the whole-system class allocation of a revenue increase from a 2024 case. The record read does not show how capacity items are costed by class, or any dollar effect on a York-area customer. A later gas cost proceeding was not read for cost allocation.7

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

Columbia Gas PA's tariff says that, if time permits, before requiring reductions it will use reasonable efforts to interrupt all interruptible services, issue operational flow and matching orders and alerts, and call for voluntary reductions. If it then curtails commercial and industrial customers that are not Priority 1, the curtailment is made "without regard to priorities of use", does not go below plant protection use, and lasts no more than five business days unless the Commission extends it; the Commission may instead order priority-based curtailments.8

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for regions it calls the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, and that the probability of at least a strong El Niño continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%; its discussion names regions, not Pennsylvania counties.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for York gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for York-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Columbia Gas PA's own firm peak-day table shows capacity about 2.8% above demand for winter 2026-27, and below the 5% thin-margin threshold in each year to 2029-30, and although FERC has issued a certificate for the Texas Eastern capacity, that capacity arrives after winter 2026-27 and the margin stays below the threshold in every year; the record also shows no negative balance or need date, and every figure is system-wide. Documented risk factors: concentration (F1), since Columbia Gas Transmission provides about 81% of Columbia Gas PA's design-day capacity, as the utility states it, for its whole system; one factor does not raise the level. Three developments would change the assessment: Columbia Gas PA's design-day supply balance review before winter 2027-28, including whether it seeks additional capacity; the in-service date of the Texas Eastern capacity for its York market, projected for November 2027 in Columbia Gas PA's filing and anticipated by November 1, 2027 in the FERC order; the capacity table in its next gas supply filing, including any change to the thin margin.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should York-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Rate class and utility. Confirm each site's Columbia Gas PA rate class (for example SGSS, SDS, LDS or MDS) and whether a site is in the two townships listed by UGI Gas.
  • Firm or interruptible, and the terms. Know whether each account is firm or interruptible and the flow-order, reduction and plant-protection terms in Rule 2.3 of the tariff before the first cold snap.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Capacity timing. Ask Columbia Gas PA when Texas Eastern capacity for the York market is expected, and what its supply balance review before winter 2027-28 found.

Frequently asked questions

Will York businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. Columbia Gas PA's February 2026 filing prints firm capacity 18.1 MDth per day above firm design-day demand for winter 2026-27, about 2.8% system-wide, and says it projects sufficient capacity; this page makes no prediction about outages.

How much spare gas capacity does Columbia Gas PA have on its coldest day?

In Exhibit 5 of its February 2026 filing, Columbia Gas PA listed net firm capacity of 652.3 MDth per day against firm design-day demand of 635.5 MDth per day for 2026-27, and printed a difference of 18.1. That is a utility schedule for its whole system, not a Commission finding and not the York metro alone.

Who is cut first if Columbia Gas PA must curtail service?

Under its tariff, Columbia Gas PA first tries to interrupt interruptible service, issue flow orders and call for voluntary reductions. Emergency reductions for commercial and industrial customers that are not Priority 1 are made without regard to priorities of use and last no more than five business days unless extended.

When will new gas pipeline capacity reach the York area?

Columbia Gas PA said new Texas Eastern capacity for its York market is projected on line in November 2027, with 3,000 Dth per day through October 2028 and 5,000 Dth per day from November 2028, under a precedent agreement. FERC issued a certificate for the project on February 25, 2026, and the order says Texas Eastern anticipates placing the facilities in service by November 1, 2027; that date and Columbia Gas PA's are both after winter 2026-27.

Does the York area have a data center driving gas demand?

The Columbia Gas PA filings reviewed do not document a data center or other new large gas load in the York area, so none is claimed here; the filing says only that demand has grown at its York area delivery point. A search of EIA's September 2026 generator inventory and PJM's Transition Cycle 1 list found no planned gas-fired generator in York County, and news reports of proposed York County data centers were not confirmed in a filing.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the US and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

Schedule a review

Notes

  1. Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Inc., Docket R-2026-3060762 (gas cost proceeding), 30-day 1307(f) pre-filing and supporting information dated February 27, 2026, Exhibit No. 5 (gas supply plan), Table 4 (PDF 171) and Table 2 (PDF 168); utility filing, system-wide, quantities in MDth per day. [YOR-01, YOR-02, YOR-03, YOR-07] ↩
  2. Same table. For 2026-27 the printed difference is 18.1 and the printed net capacity less printed total demand is 16.8; the printed 2026-27 total firm capacity of 670.9 also differs from the sum of its lines (672.1), and the table's caption refers to a 2024 forecast while the text cites the 2025 Design Day Forecast. We use the printed figures and show our subtraction; the figures are illustrative, run by code (york_calculations.csv). Every year in either column is below 5% of demand. [YOR-03, YOR-04, YOR-05, YOR-06, YOR-08] ↩
  3. Same exhibit, Capacity Portfolio (PDF 172): Columbia Gas Transmission about 66 percent of winter season demand and about 81 percent of design-day capacity. [YOR-09]
  4. Same exhibit, Texas Eastern contracts and Appalachia to Market III (PDF 173 and 174) and Table 4. The project is described as a precedent agreement with a projected November 2027 in-service date. [YOR-10, YOR-11, YOR-12, YOR-13] ↩
  5. Columbia Gas PA tariff, Gas - Pa. P.U.C. No. 9, Description of Territory (as filed in Volume 5 of the March 2024 rate filing, PDF 20 to 23): 25 county headings counted by code, 1 in the metro, 24 outside (york_metro_classification.csv); UGI Gas tariff Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, Supplement No. 59, York County: Townships Fairview, Newberry. County boundaries from OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (delineation file list1_2023.xlsx). [YOR-15, YOR-16] ↩
  6. Not established, and left out of the page: supply events since 2020 affecting Columbia Gas PA (the 2024 filing gives historical peak days only); new large loads or data centers (none found in the filings read); regulator capacity review of Exhibit 5 (the settlement and Commission order in the 1307(f) proceeding were not read); contract end dates for York market capacity (the expiring contracts named serve other markets); how the printed 2026-27 difference was computed; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (the pipelines' posting sites could not be read by script); the previous design-day standard.
  7. Joint Petition for Partial Settlement, Docket R-2024-3046519, paragraph 16 (PDF 7) and Appendix B (PDF 34); Commission Opinion and Order entered November 21, 2024 (PDF 4). Settlement among Columbia Gas PA and other parties; the Commission order is a regulator finding. [YOR-20, YOR-21, YOR-22] ↩
  8. Columbia Gas PA tariff Gas - Pa. P.U.C. No. 9, Rule 2.3.3, Emergency Actions Curtailments, and Rule 2.3.4, Priority-Based Curtailments (Volume 5, PDF 48 to 49). [YOR-17, YOR-18, YOR-19] ↩
  9. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Order Issuing Certificate and Approving Abandonment, Texas Eastern Transmission, LP, Docket CP25-491-000 (issued February 25, 2026; Word version downloaded by hand from FERC eLibrary, accession 20260225-3024, saved and hashed); Federal Register notice 2025-09918 (90 FR 23327, June 2, 2025), Texas Eastern Transmission, LP, Docket CP25-491-000, Appalachia to Market III Project (application filed May 15, 2025); The certificate date and the anticipated in-service date (November 1, 2027) are taken from the FERC order itself. [YOR-23, YOR-25, YOR-26, YOR-35, YOR-36] ↩
  10. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to York County by code, and the PJM Transition Cycle 1 Phase III project list (Pennsylvania rows; the list has no county column), both computed by code (york_calculations.csv). [YOR-27, YOR-28] ↩
  11. R3 not established, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, PJM Transition Cycle 1, Federal Register FERC notices, DEP and Pennsylvania Bulletin web searches): a state air plan approval, PJM Cycle 1 (2026) queue entry or FERC filing for the York 2 Energy Center data center (Peach Bottom Township) or the Fairview Crossroads data center (Fairview Township), which appear only in news reports; PJM's Cycle 1 applications by county, which PJM does not publish in a form code could save; and Pennsylvania Bulletin notices, which do not allow scripted access. These are listed for manual download in batches/PJM-01/tara_review_addendum.md.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2026-3060762, Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Inc.: 30-day 1307(f) pre-filing and supporting information, Exhibit No. 5. Link
  2. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2024-3046519, Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Inc. rate filing: Volume 5, tariff Pa. P.U.C. No. 9. Link
  3. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2024-3046519: Joint Petition for Settlement. Link
  4. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2024-3046519: Opinion and Order. Link
  5. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket R-2025-3059523, UGI Utilities, Inc. - Gas Division: Book X, tariff Pa. P.U.C. No. 7, Supplement No. 59. Link
  6. Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, docket page for R-2026-3060762. Link
  7. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  8. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Federal Register notice 2025-09918, Texas Eastern Transmission, LP, Docket CP25-491-000. Link
  9. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Order Issuing Certificate and Approving Abandonment, Texas Eastern Transmission, LP, Docket CP25-491-000, February 25, 2026 (FERC eLibrary, accession 20260225-3024).
  10. Enbridge Inc., Appalachia to Market III Project. Link
  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  12. PJM Interconnection, Transition Cycle 1 Phase III Executive Summary. Link