New York natural gas case study, Albany, New York. October 2026

Albany-area natural gas capacity: pressure on the Albany Loop, and a paused backup project

The consultant to New York Department of Public Service Staff said, from National Grid's own models, that delivery pressures on the Albany Loop pipeline, which serves Albany and Troy, drop after winter 2026-27 and that without reinforcement the loop may not deliver adequate gas on a design day. The planned fix, a second compressed natural gas site near Troy known as ETS2, is now paused after National Grid accepted a 10,000 Dth/day city gate peaking agreement at its East Gate from December 2027 through March 2033, and the record does not show whether that resolves the pressure need.

After winter 2026-27When Albany Loop delivery pressures drop in National Grid's models, per Staff's consultant
10,000 Dth/dayEast Gate city gate peaking National Grid accepted from December 2027 through March 2033
3 citygatesEastern Gas Transmission and Storage citygates that ETS2 would relieve (Wolf Rd, Normanskill, Troy)
0.06 MDt/dayNational Grid's projected 2030/31 gap for its whole Upstate system, Reference Case; system context

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady and Schoharie counties. The gas utility identified in the record is Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation d/b/a National Grid (National Grid), which supplies gas in parts of Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga and Schenectady counties; its East Gate division serves the Albany, Troy and Schenectady areas. Whether any gas utility serves Schoharie County, or whether New York State Electric & Gas Corporation serves any part of the metro, is not established. Upstate-wide figures below are labeled system context.6

Key takeaways

  • The consultant to Department of Public Service Staff said, from National Grid's hydraulic models, that delivery pressures along the northern section of the Albany Loop drop after winter 2026-27 and that, absent reinforcement, the loop may not be able to deliver adequate gas supplies on a design day.1
  • The same consultant said that, on National Grid's design day forecast, without ETS2 by the 2027-28 winter the Albany Loop will not provide adequate gas deliveries to its distribution regulator stations, and that ETS2 would reduce stress on three Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage citygates: Wolf Rd, Normanskill and Troy.2
  • The Commission's September 2025 order summarized National Grid's plan as needing ETS2 for design day demand in winter 2027/28, with operation then scheduled for winter 2026/27. In its 2026 annual update National Grid said the second compressed natural gas site project is currently paused after it accepted 10,000 Dth/day of East Gate city gate peaking from December 2027 through March 2033; the record read does not show whether that resolves the Albany Loop need or that the Commission approved the substitute.3
  • System context: National Grid's 2026 update lists a forecasted East Gate supply shortfall among its upstate constraints, and its Reference Case projects a gap of 0.06 MDt/day in 2030/31 for its whole Upstate system, attributed to growing East Gate demand; its plan says no gaps appear under two other scenarios.4
  • National Grid said that during Winter Storm Fern in January 2026 non-firm interruptible customers and demand response were activated multiple times in upstate and downstate New York, that firm service was reliable, and that the winter's peak day was warmer than design day conditions.5
  • The consultant cited potential demand growth from the GlobalFoundries expansion in discussing the East Gate; the passage gives no volume or service date.7

Which parts of the record fall inside the Albany metro?

The consultant lists Albany, Schenectady, Rensselaer and Saratoga counties among the counties where National Grid supplies gas in parts; Schoharie County is not listed. The East Gate serves the Albany, Troy and Schenectady areas, and its Albany Loop pipeline serves significant demand in Albany and Troy. How much of each county National Grid serves is not shown. System context: whether the East Gate reaches places outside the five metro counties is not shown.6

Where Item in the record
Inside the metro East Gate (Albany Loop, Troy, Schenectady, Moreau)
Outside the metro, system context West Gate (Syracuse, Utica, Watertown); Empire Pipeline capacity; Upstate-wide 2030/31 gap
Unclear Schoharie County; any NYSEG territory

National Grid's upstate divisions and the record items tied to them, by whether they fall inside the Albany metro (OMB delineation). Sources: DPS Staff consultant's final report, Sections 1.1 and 4.4.1.6

Has the Albany area had gas supply problems since 2020?

The record read documents one event. During Winter Storm Fern in January 2026, National Grid said non-firm interruptible customers and demand response were activated multiple times in upstate and downstate New York to ensure reliability to firm customers, and that the winter's peak day was warmer than design day. The record read shows no firm-customer curtailment, and events from 2020 to 2025 were not searched.5

How much spare gas capacity does Albany have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Albany N Tennessee Gas Pipeline Tennessee Gas Pipeline Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Albany. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

National Grid models upstate gas requirements on a design day average temperature of minus 10 degrees Fahrenheit at the Albany and Syracuse airports.8

For the East Gate, the record gives a pressure test rather than a supply-and-demand balance: the consultant's reading of the company's models is that the Albany Loop's delivery pressures decline after winter 2026-27 and that deliveries to downstream regulator stations become insufficient absent reinforcement.1

System context: for its whole Upstate system, National Grid's Reference Case projects a gap of 0.06 MDt/day in 2030/31, attributed to growing East Gate demand, and the consultant found no Upstate shortfall at any point in the study period under National Grid's Clean Energy Vision and Accelerated Electrification forecasts.4

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The consultant says GlobalFoundries and Micron have published plans to expand operations that could affect their gas demand, and cites potential demand growth from the GlobalFoundries expansion in discussing the East Gate. The record read gives no volume or service date, and does not locate either plant.7

A search of other official records found no documented new gas load with a service date in the five metro counties: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator there, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 found no pipeline notice naming any of the five counties.10 The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) queue of September 30, 2026 has one natural gas entry in the metro, a request about the capacity rights of the Bethlehem Energy Center in Albany County that states no megawatts and shows no new gas supply or service date,11 and its load list has one data center entry in the five counties; NYISO's load queue records electric load, and it does not say whether natural gas serves it.11 The load list also has an entry named IGTS Wright EMD Compressor in Schoharie County, 14.38 MW, with initial backfeed proposed for November 2028; the entry does not say what it changes on the pipeline.11

Are upgrades arriving in time?

For the East Gate, the plan changed between filings. The Commission's September 2025 order summarized National Grid's plan: ETS2, a second compressed natural gas site near Troy, was needed for winter 2027/28 and scheduled for winter 2026/27. In its 2026 annual update, National Grid said it accepted 10,000 Dth/day of city gate peaking at its East Gate from December 2027 through March 2033, extending its current agreement for six years, and with it paused construction of the second site to investigate possible alternatives. The same update lists a forecasted East Gate supply shortfall and localized gate imbalances among its constraints.3

National Grid proposed an East Gate Reliability Assessment to determine how to alleviate the need for additional supply, and the 2025 Niagara Mohawk rate order permits it to defer up to $7.7 million of the assessment's costs if the Commission directs it in another proceeding. The record read does not show that the assessment has been ordered.3

System context: incremental capacity available on the Empire Pipeline would not benefit the East Gate.3

The record does not show whether a city gate peaking agreement of this size addresses the Albany Loop pressure need, so whether upgrades arrive in time is not established.

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The record gives no dollar or bill figure for capacity costs by customer class, so none is given here. The only cost item on file is that the 2025 Niagara Mohawk rate order permits National Grid to defer up to $7.7 million of the East Gate assessment's costs if directed. Who bears the cost of any future East Gate capacity addition is not decided in this record.3

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 outlook gives the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions to, among other areas, the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, a discussion that names regions and not New York counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Albany gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Albany-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): National Grid's models show Albany Loop delivery pressures dropping after winter 2026-27, the planned fix (ETS2) is paused, and the record read shows no approved substitute, although National Grid has accepted East Gate city gate peaking from December 2027 and proposed a reliability assessment. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: National Grid's decision on ETS2 or an alternative for the East Gate and the outcome of the East Gate Reliability Assessment; the 2027 annual long-term plan update, including any change to the 10,000 Dth/day city gate agreement running December 2027 through March 2033; a signed gas load expansion with a service date, such as the GlobalFoundries expansion.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Albany-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility, and which service class. Confirm whether each site is served by National Grid and whether it takes firm or interruptible service, since interruptible customers were activated in January 2026.
  • Standby and firm-capacity terms. Know the terms of any standby or large-customer service election, since National Grid said a supply-demand imbalance could be worsened by expanding standby service for large industrial customers.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track National Grid's decision on the East Gate, its 2027 annual update, and any order on the East Gate Reliability Assessment.

Frequently asked questions

Will Albany businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. Staff's consultant said, from National Grid's models, that Albany Loop delivery pressures drop after winter 2026-27 and that without reinforcement the loop may not deliver adequate gas on a design day. National Grid said firm service was reliable in the January 2026 storm. This page makes no prediction about outages.

What is the Albany Loop?

It is the pipeline in the eastern part of National Grid's East Gate system that serves significant customer demand in the Albany and Troy areas and receives gas from Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage and Tennessee Gas Pipeline.

Is the second gas storage site near Troy still planned?

National Grid said in its 2026 annual update that the project to construct a second compressed natural gas site in upstate New York is currently paused, after it accepted East Gate city gate peaking of 10,000 Dth/day from December 2027 through March 2033, while it investigates alternatives.

Is there a gas supply gap for upstate New York?

National Grid's Reference Case projects a gap of 0.06 MDt/day in 2030/31 for its whole Upstate system, attributed to growing East Gate demand. Its plan says no gaps appear under two other scenarios. That is a system-wide company projection, not a Commission finding.

Is a data center or chip plant driving gas demand near Albany?

Staff's consultant cited potential demand growth from the GlobalFoundries expansion in discussing the East Gate. The record read gives no volume or service date. A search of EIA's September 2026 generator inventory, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notices and NYISO's queue found no planned gas-fired generator or pipeline project in the five metro counties; NYISO's load list has one data center entry, which is an electric load.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

Understand your capacity exposure

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Notes

  1. Final Report of National Grid's Final Long-Term Gas Plan, prepared by PA Consulting for Department of Public Service Staff, Case 24-G-0248, Section 4.4.1: PDF 68 and 69 (Albany Loop pressures), PDF 14 (counties). Staff analysis of the company's models. [ALB-01 to ALB-05] ↩
  2. Same report, PDF 68. ETS2 and the three citygates. [ALB-06, ALB-07] ↩
  3. Commission Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Requiring Further Actions, Case 24-G-0248 (session September 18, 2025), PDF 15 and 16 (company's plan as summarized by the Commission; not a Commission finding); National Grid Annual Long-Term Plan Update Report (2026), PDF 22 and 24; consultant's report PDF 52. Utility statements. [ALB-08, ALB-12 to ALB-19, ALB-26] ↩
  4. Same order, PDF 15 and 16; National Grid 2026 annual update, PDF 24; consultant's report PDF 58. The Upstate gap is a whole-system figure (system context). [ALB-09 to ALB-11, ALB-15] ↩
  5. National Grid 2026 annual update, Sections 4.6 and 5.1, PDF 23 and 24. Utility statement. [ALB-23, ALB-24] ↩
  6. Consultant's report PDF 14, 68; metro counties from metro_counties.csv; classification in albany_metro_classification.csv. The match of Albany, Troy and Schenectady to counties is general geography, not a quotation. [ALB-01 to ALB-03] ↩
  7. Consultant's report PDF 27 and 69. [ALB-21, ALB-22] ↩
  8. National Grid LTP Demand Forecast Update and Report, PDF 11. [ALB-25] ↩
  9. Not established, and left out of the page: curtailment and interruption priorities under National Grid's gas tariff (PSC No. 219; not saved); the class allocation of any East Gate cost (the Niagara Mohawk rate case 24-G-0323 was not read); delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not captured; next capture about March 2027); events from 2020 to 2025; whether any gas utility serves Schoharie County or any New York State Electric & Gas territory in the metro; whether the East Gate city gate agreement resolves the Albany Loop pressure need.
  10. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Albany, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady and Schoharie counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code (albany_calculations.csv). A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [ALB-27, ALB-30] ↩
  11. New York Independent System Operator, Interconnection Queue (September 30, 2026), sheets Interconnection Queue, Cluster Projects and Load Projects, filtered by county in code (derived_next02_r3.txt lists each entry by name). The entry for the Bethlehem Energy Center is a capacity-rights-only request; the load entries are electric loads. [ALB-28, ALB-29, ALB-31] ↩
  12. R3 not established, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, the NYISO queue where New York applies, a Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, and utility and pipeline-company pages): state air permit records, FERC eLibrary filings, each utility's own large-load request list and county economic development filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. New York State Department of Public Service, Case 24-G-0248, Final Report of National Grid's Final Long-Term Gas Plan. Link
  2. New York State Public Service Commission, Case 24-G-0248, Order Regarding Long-Term Natural Gas Plan and Requiring Further Actions. Link
  3. National Grid, Case 24-G-0248, Annual Long-Term Plan Update Report (2026). Link
  4. National Grid, Case 24-G-0248, LTP Demand Forecast Update and Report. Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link
  8. New York Independent System Operator, Interconnection Queue, September 30, 2026. Link