New York natural gas case study, Buffalo, New York. October 2026

Buffalo-area natural gas capacity: a utility that reports ample supply, and a margin below 5%

National Fuel told the New York Public Service Commission in May 2026 that it reports no significant areas of concern or vulnerability due to supply or delivery constraints and that ample firm capacity is available for its projected design day. Its own Reference Case tables print total capacity of 1,019,457 Dth/day for FY 2027 against design day demand with shrinkage of 989,203 Dth/day, a difference of 30,254 Dth/day by our subtraction, or 3.06% of demand for its whole system, below the 5% thin-margin threshold in Discovery Energy's Outlook Scale.

1,019,457 Dth/dayNational Fuel's Reference Case total capacity for FY 2027, whole system (utility figure)
989,203 Dth/dayIts design day demand with shrinkage for FY 2027, whole system (utility figure)
3.06%Capacity above design day demand in FY 2027, our subtraction of the two printed figures, whole system
0Vulnerable locations National Fuel reported in its long-term plan

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Erie and Niagara counties. The gas utility identified in the record is National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation (National Fuel), whose New York territory runs from Niagara County to the Pennsylvania border; its plan documents list Buffalo, Amherst, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls and North Tonawanda among communities served. Every capacity figure below is for National Fuel's whole system, so it is labeled system context. Whether any other gas utility serves part of the two counties is not established.6

Key takeaways

  • System context: National Fuel said in its May 2026 annual report that it reports no significant areas of concern or vulnerability in its system due to supply or delivery constraints, and that ample firm capacity and supplies are available to serve its projected design day.3
  • System context: the same report prints Reference Case total capacity of 1,019,457 Dth/day for FY 2027 and design day demand with shrinkage of 989,203 Dth/day; subtracting gives 30,254 Dth/day, 3.06% of demand, below the Outlook Scale's 5% thin-margin threshold, and the shares are similar in FY 2028 and FY 2029.12
  • National Fuel reported in its long-term plan that it did not have any vulnerable locations, and said it does not anticipate needing to propose a moratorium on new connections during the plan period.3
  • The consultant to Department of Public Service Staff said in 2023 that National Fuel's hydraulic modeling of its Reference Case design day revealed pressures below minimum design pressures in isolated pockets of the low-pressure system; the passage does not locate them.4
  • The Commission's December 2023 order records the consultant's finding that National Fuel's 74 heating degree day design day was a reasonable assumption.4
  • National Fuel named three risk factors that do not affect its current plan but may affect future ones: declining local production, transportation customers that convert to sales service and need firm capacity, and the loss of ESCO capacity, which it called a notable potential system-wide vulnerability; its capacity table counts 54,805 Dth/day of ESCO capacity in FY 2027.3

Which parts of the record fall inside the Buffalo metro?

National Fuel's plan appendices say its New York territory extends from the Pennsylvania border with Cattaraugus and Allegany counties north to Niagara County. A 2021 market study in those appendices lists Buffalo, Amherst, Cheektowaga and other Erie County communities and Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda and other Niagara County communities among those served, so the utility is identified for both metro counties. How much of each county National Fuel serves is not shown.6

Where Item in the record
Inside the metro Erie County and Niagara County communities named in National Fuel's plan
Outside the metro, system context National Fuel's other counties (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua and others); all capacity and demand totals
Unclear Any other gas utility in Erie or Niagara County

National Fuel's service territory by whether it falls inside the Buffalo metro (OMB delineation). Sources: Final Long-Term Plan Appendices D to K, Appendix H.6

System context: every capacity and demand figure on this page is a National Fuel whole-system figure. The record does not allocate any of it to Erie and Niagara counties.

How much spare gas capacity does Buffalo have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Buffalo N National Fuel Gas Supply National Fuel Gas Supply Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Buffalo. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

National Fuel's May 2026 annual report tables, for its whole system, set total Reference Case capacity by source against design day demand with shrinkage.1

Fiscal year Total capacity (Dth/day) Design day demand with shrinkage (Dth/day) Difference by our subtraction (Dth/day) Difference as share of demand
FY 2027 1,019,457 989,203 30,254 3.06%
FY 2028 1,019,360 989,247 30,113 3.04%
FY 2029 1,019,098 988,864 30,234 3.06%

National Fuel's Reference Case total capacity and design day demand with shrinkage, whole system. The last two columns are our subtraction and division, illustrative, run by code. Source: NFGDC Long-Term Plan Annual Report, May 2026, Figures III-4 and III-6.12

Each year is below the Outlook Scale's 5% thin-margin threshold. The filing prints the two series but not their difference, and it states that ample firm capacity is available; the capacity total includes 153,982 Dth/day of large industrial delivered supplies and 54,805 Dth/day of ESCO-provided capacity in FY 2027. National Fuel called the loss of ESCO capacity a notable potential system-wide vulnerability. The record read shows no scheduled capacity addition.13

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The printed design day demand is flat through FY 2029, at 989,203, 989,247 and 988,864 Dth/day in successive years, so the record read shows no growth driver and no new large load with a service date.1

A search of other official records found no documented new gas load with a service date in Erie and Niagara counties: EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator there, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) queue of September 30, 2026 has no natural gas entry in either county, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 found no pipeline notice naming either county.78 NYISO's load list does have 8 data center entries in the two counties, with 2,016 MW of requested peak electric load in total; these are electric loads, and the queue does not say whether natural gas serves any of them.8 System context: National Fuel Gas Supply's May 2026 customer presentation lists serving directly connected power generation among projects in early-stage development, naming no plant, county or service date, and says construction has commenced on the Tioga Pathway project (190,000 Dth per day) in Tioga County, outside the metro.9

What should Buffalo-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Sales or transportation service. Confirm whether each site buys gas from National Fuel or through a supplier, since National Fuel named the capacity needed if transportation customers convert to sales service as a risk factor.
  • Firm or interruptible, and the terms. Know the interruption terms in the tariff for each account; this page does not state them because the tariff was not read.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming reports. Track National Fuel's next annual long-term plan report, expected around May 2027.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 outlook gives the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions to, among other areas, the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, a discussion that names regions and not New York counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Buffalo gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Buffalo-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): National Fuel's own Reference Case figures put total capacity about 3.1% above design day demand in each year, below the 5% thin-margin threshold, and the record read shows no scheduled addition, although National Fuel says ample firm capacity is available and reports no vulnerable locations; every figure is for its whole system. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: National Fuel's next annual report, around May 2027, with updated capacity and design day demand tables; any change to the ESCO capacity, large industrial supplies or local production assumptions behind the capacity table; a hydraulic modeling update that locates the low-pressure pockets the consultant found.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

Frequently asked questions

Will Buffalo businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. National Fuel said in May 2026 that ample firm capacity and supplies are available for its projected design day and that it has no vulnerable locations. Its printed figures put capacity about 3.1% above design day demand for its whole system. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Is there spare gas capacity in the Buffalo area on the coldest day?

For its whole system, National Fuel's Reference Case prints total capacity of 1,019,457 Dth/day and design day demand with shrinkage of 989,203 Dth/day for FY 2027, a difference of 30,254 Dth/day by our subtraction, 3.06% of demand. That is a utility table, not a Commission finding, and not the metro alone.

Does National Fuel have areas where gas may not be delivered reliably?

National Fuel reported in its long-term plan that it did not have any vulnerable locations. The consultant to Staff said in 2023 that hydraulic modeling revealed pressures below minimum design pressures in isolated pockets of the low-pressure system, without locating them.

Could the Buffalo area face a moratorium on new gas connections?

National Fuel said in its May 2026 report that it does not anticipate needing to propose a moratorium on new connections during the plan period.

Is a data center driving gas demand in Buffalo?

The record read does not show one. National Fuel's printed design day demand is flat through FY 2029. A search of EIA's September 2026 generator inventory, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pipeline notices and the New York Independent System Operator's queue found no planned gas-fired generator or pipeline project in Erie or Niagara county; the queue's load list has 8 data center entries, which are electric loads.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the US and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

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Notes

  1. National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, Long-Term Plan Annual Report, Case 22-G-0610, filed May 29, 2026: Figure III-4 (design day demand with shrinkage, PDF 13) and Figure III-6 (capacity by source, PDF 15). Utility statements. [BUF-01 to BUF-04] ↩
  2. Same figures. Difference and share: 30,254 Dth/day and 3.06% for FY 2027; 30,113 and 3.04% for FY 2028; 30,234 and 3.06% for FY 2029. Illustrative, run by code (buffalo_calculations.csv); the filing prints the totals, not the difference. [BUF-01 to BUF-04] ↩
  3. Same report, PDF 15 and 16 (Gas System Planning Update). [BUF-05 to BUF-09, BUF-15] ↩
  4. CRA Final Report to DPS Staff (July 25, 2023), PDF 6 (hydraulic modeling); Commission Order Implementing Long-Term Natural Gas Plan with Modifications (December 2023), PDF 27 (design day). [BUF-10, BUF-11] ↩
  5. Not established, and left out of the page: supply events since 2020 (keyword scan found none; pipeline notices not searched); capacity additions; cost allocation and rate case positions; tariff interruption order; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not captured; next capture about March 2027); other gas utilities in Erie and Niagara counties; where the low-pressure pockets are.
  6. Final Long-Term Plan Appendices D to K (July 17, 2023), Appendix H residential market study, PDF 111 and 234; metro counties from metro_counties.csv; classification in buffalo_metro_classification.csv. [BUF-12 to BUF-14] ↩
  7. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Erie and Niagara counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, both computed by code (buffalo_calculations.csv). A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [BUF-16, BUF-17, BUF-19] ↩
  8. New York Independent System Operator, Interconnection Queue (September 30, 2026), Interconnection Queue, Cluster Projects and Load Projects sheets, filtered by county in code (derived_next02_r3.txt lists each entry by name). The data center entries are electric loads. [BUF-17, BUF-18] ↩
  9. National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation and Empire Pipeline, Biennial Customer Meeting presentation, May 21, 2026, page 5; a company presentation, system context, saved October 25, 2026. [BUF-20, BUF-21] ↩
  10. R3 not established, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, the NYISO queue where New York applies, a Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, and utility and pipeline-company pages): state air permit records, FERC eLibrary filings, each utility's own large-load request list and county economic development filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. New York State Department of Public Service, Case 22-G-0610, National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation Long-Term Plan Annual Report (May 29, 2026). Link
  2. New York State Department of Public Service, Case 22-G-0610, CRA Final Report. Link
  3. National Fuel, Final Long-Term Plan Appendices D to K, Case 22-G-0610. Link
  4. National Fuel, Order Implementing Long-Term Natural Gas Plan with Modifications, Case 22-G-0610. Link
  5. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  7. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link
  8. New York Independent System Operator, Interconnection Queue, September 30, 2026. Link
  9. National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation and Empire Pipeline, Biennial Customer Meeting presentation, May 2026. Link