Florida natural gas case study, Miami, Florida. October 2026

Miami-area natural gas capacity: a utility that says it lacks primary capacity for its coldest day, and a fix due in late 2028

Florida City Gas told the Florida Public Service Commission in April 2026 that it does not hold sufficient primary firm capacity to serve its entire customer base during peak design day conditions and must rely on secondary capacity, which it called not as reliable as firm capacity. It has signed a precedent agreement for 40,000 Dth per day of additional firm capacity on Florida Gas Transmission's Phase IX expansion, expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2028, after two more winters. The testimony gives no figure for the shortfall, and Peoples, which also serves the metro, has no peak-day figures for it in the record read.

40,000 Dth per dayAdditional firm capacity Florida City Gas has agreed to acquire on Florida Gas Transmission's Phase IX, company-wide
Q4 2028Expected effective date of Phase IX, per Florida City Gas
1 pipelineInterstate pipelines interconnected with Florida City Gas, per the company
April 2023Month Florida City Gas's Homestead LNG storage facility entered service

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties. Two gas distribution utilities are identified in the record: Florida City Gas (FCG), which names all three counties among the eight it serves, and Peoples Gas System (Peoples), which lists a Miami service area and a Jupiter service area. Whether Florida Public Utilities Company serves part of the metro is not established. The figures below are company-wide statements by FCG, so they are labeled system context where they cover counties outside the metro.18

Key takeaways

  • Florida City Gas said in April 2026 that it does not hold sufficient primary capacity to serve its entire customer base during peak design day conditions, and that during peak conditions it must rely on secondary capacity, which is not as reliable as firm capacity; the testimony is company-wide and gives no shortfall figure.2
  • Florida City Gas said secondary capacity is often unavailable during extreme peak conditions, and that constraints at Florida Gas Transmission's Compressor Station 21 limit the gas that can be delivered into the market south of it, where the majority of its demand is located.2
  • Florida Gas Transmission is the only interstate pipeline interconnected with Florida City Gas, which also described a single source gas supply coming into its South Florida area.24
  • Florida City Gas executed a precedent agreement for 40,000 Dth per day of additional firm capacity, with primary rights to constrained areas, on Phase IX, which it said is needed to meet its peak design day requirements; the effective date is expected in the fourth quarter of 2028.3
  • Florida City Gas said its Homestead LNG storage facility, in service since April 2023, lets it back feed a sizable portion of its South Florida operations if the single source supply is interrupted, and has been used for peak shaving when needed because of supply constraints during high demand; the testimony gives no dates.4
  • Peoples Gas System lists a Miami service area; the record read has no peak-day or capacity figure for it, so how much spare capacity its Miami-area system has is not established.8

Which parts of the record fall inside the Miami metro?

Florida City Gas said it serves 125,000 customers in eight counties, including Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, which are the three metro counties, and that its largest concentration of customers is in Miami-Dade County (the City of Hialeah). Its Homestead LNG facility is in Miami-Dade County. Peoples lists a Miami service area and a Jupiter service area among its 14, without county detail in the passage read.18

Where Item in the record
Inside the metro Florida City Gas in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties; Homestead LNG facility; Peoples' Miami service area
Outside the metro, system context Florida City Gas's Brevard, Hendry, Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties; Florida Gas Transmission's Compressor Station 21 and Phase IX; company-wide customer and capacity statements
Unclear Peoples' county territory and figures; Florida Public Utilities

Florida City Gas and Peoples Gas System record items by whether they fall inside the Miami metro (OMB delineation). Sources: Florida City Gas direct testimony, April 2026; Peoples direct testimony, 2025.18

System context: Florida City Gas's statements about capacity cover its whole eight-county system. The record does not allocate any of it to the three metro counties, and the record read has no more local figure (metro, area or division), so this page uses the company-wide statements.

How much spare gas capacity does Miami have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Miami N Florida Gas Transmission Florida Gas Transmission Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Miami. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

On the evidence in the record, the Florida City Gas system does not have enough primary firm capacity for its peak design day. The company said it must rely on secondary capacity at peak, that such capacity is often unavailable in extreme conditions, and that the supply-demand balance in the region is trending tighter, which raises the risk that primary shippers will have no surplus to release. It also said it continues to evaluate pipeline solutions and projects for the significant capacity shortfall. The testimony does not quantify the shortfall or the design day, so no margin can be calculated.2

For Peoples, the record read gives design day only as a cost-allocation method in its 2025 rate case, with no demand or capacity figures for the Miami area. That is a gap on this page.

What is driving new natural gas demand?

Florida City Gas said the capacity it is acquiring is needed to ensure it can provide service to new customers, and the testimony names no new load or service date.3 Chesapeake Utilities, which owns Florida City Gas, said in July 2026 that population and economic growth in Florida has led to significant energy supply constraints in the south Florida area, and the release gives no figure.10

A search of other official records found no documented new gas load in the metro. EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach county.9 The one Federal Register notice of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 that names Miami-Dade County, for a pressure reduction at Florida Gas Transmission's SE Hialeah delivery facilities, says the project will not affect system capacity.11

System context: FPL's 2026 Ten Year Power Plant Site Plan lists new combustion turbines from 2032 and names no site for them in its resource table, and its 672 MW Vandolah plant, planned for 2027, is in Hardee County, outside the metro.12

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The company's planned addition is 40,000 Dth per day of additional firm capacity, with primary rights to constrained areas, under a precedent agreement for Florida Gas Transmission's Phase IX expansion. The expected effective date is the fourth quarter of 2028, so the winters of 2026-27 and 2027-28 come before it. The company said the capacity is needed to meet the peak design day requirements of its system, and that it is critical to ensure meaningful access to capacity and supply and to ensure it can provide service to new customers as well; no new load or service date is named.3

In the meantime the company has the Homestead LNG storage facility, in service since April 2023, which it said allows it to back feed a sizable portion of its South Florida operations if the single source supply is interrupted and has been used for peak shaving when needed. The testimony gives no capacity for the facility and no dates of use, so how much of the primary capacity gap it covers is not established.4

System context: the Phase IX project is an interstate pipeline expansion outside the metro, and its in-service date is the company's expectation, not a Commission finding.3

Separately, Chesapeake Utilities, which owns Florida City Gas, announced on July 13, 2026 the Florida Energy Pathway, an anticipated 24-inch intrastate pipeline from Palm Beach County to Miami-Dade County, anchored by firm commitments of nearly 250,000 Dth per day with upstream capacity from Phase IX. It anticipates service in 2030, after the fourth quarter of 2028 date for Phase IX. These are company statements; the release does not name the shippers or say whether Florida City Gas holds any of the capacity, and the record read names no Commission action on the project.10

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The record gives no dollar or bill figure for capacity costs by customer class, so none is given here. These are the positions on file:

  • Florida City Gas is seeking a base rate increase of $63,273,876, using a projected test year ending December 31, 2027; this is a request, not a decision.5
  • The Federal Executive Agencies' witness recommended that the Commission direct the company to use a design day demand based capacity cost allocator in its next rate case, instead of a peak and average allocator; this is a party's position.6

Who bears the cost of the Phase IX capacity is not decided in the record read.

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, south Florida, and that it gives the greatest likelihood of wetter than normal conditions to the Southeast and Florida, a discussion that names regions and not counties, and that the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80%.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average, and that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast.A1A2 EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about the utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Miami gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Miami-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): Florida City Gas said it does not hold sufficient primary firm capacity for its peak design day and its planned addition is expected only in the fourth quarter of 2028, so its own statement puts the system beyond its primary capacity before a fix arrives; the rating is provisional on Florida City Gas's record, because the testimony gives no shortfall figure and Peoples has no figures for the metro in the record. Documented risk factors: concentration (F1), since Florida Gas Transmission is the only interstate pipeline interconnected with Florida City Gas; one factor does not raise the level. The Compressor Station 21 constraint limits the gas deliverable into the market where most of its demand is located, but it is a limit upstream of the metro and not at a gate inside it, so it is not counted as an upstream-limit factor (F5). Three developments would change the assessment: Florida Gas Transmission's Phase IX in-service date, expected in the fourth quarter of 2028, and any change to the 40,000 Dth per day agreement; the Commission's order in the Florida City Gas rate case and any finding on capacity; a quantified shortfall or design day figure, from the design day analysis Florida City Gas commissioned or from peak-day figures from Peoples for its Miami service area, either of which would confirm or change this provisional rating.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Miami-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility, and which supply arrangement. Confirm whether each site is served by Florida City Gas, Peoples or another gas utility, and whether gas is bought from the utility or from a third-party supplier that relies on secondary capacity.
  • Firm or interruptible, and the terms. Know the interruption terms in the tariff for each account; this page does not state them because the tariffs were not read.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track the Commission's order in the Florida City Gas rate case and the Phase IX in-service date.

Frequently asked questions

Will Miami businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. Florida City Gas said in April 2026 that it does not hold sufficient primary capacity for its peak design day and relies on secondary capacity, which is less reliable, and that it has an LNG facility for peak shaving. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Does Florida City Gas have enough pipeline capacity for its coldest day?

By its own testimony in April 2026, it does not hold sufficient primary firm capacity to serve its entire customer base during peak design day conditions. The testimony does not give a figure for the shortfall. That is a utility statement, not a Commission finding.

What is Florida Gas Transmission's Phase IX expansion?

Florida City Gas said it executed a precedent agreement with Florida Gas Transmission for 40,000 Dth per day of additional firm capacity as part of the Phase IX expansion, expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2028. Chesapeake Utilities, which owns Florida City Gas, announced in July 2026 a proposed 24-inch pipeline from Palm Beach County to Miami-Dade County that it anticipates in service in 2030, supplied upstream through Phase IX.

How many pipelines bring gas to Florida City Gas?

The company said Florida Gas Transmission is the only interstate pipeline interconnected with it, and that constraints at Compressor Station 21 limit gas deliverable into the market south of it, where most of its demand is located.

What does the Homestead LNG facility do?

Florida City Gas said it entered service in April 2023, lets it back feed a sizable portion of its South Florida operations if the single source supply is interrupted, and has been used for peak shaving when needed.

What do we know about Peoples Gas in Miami?

Peoples lists a Miami service area. The record read has no peak-day or capacity figures for it.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the US and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

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Notes

  1. Florida City Gas, Direct Testimony of Dan Noia, Docket 20260026-GU, filed April 20, 2026, PDF 7 and 8 (counties and customers). Utility statements. [MIA-01, MIA-02] ↩
  2. Same testimony, PDF 6, 12, 13 and 14 (capacity planning). Utility statements, company-wide. [MIA-03 to MIA-09, MIA-12, MIA-13] ↩
  3. Same testimony, PDF 14 (Phase IX precedent agreement, 40,000 Dth per day, expected Q4 2028). [MIA-10, MIA-11, MIA-20] ↩
  4. Direct Testimony of William Haffecke, Docket 20260026-GU, filed April 20, 2026, PDF 29 (Homestead LNG facility). [MIA-14 to MIA-16] ↩
  5. Direct Testimony of Everngam, same docket, PDF 10 (rate request). A request, not a decision. [MIA-17] ↩
  6. Direct Testimony of Michael P. Gorman for the Federal Executive Agencies, same docket, filed July 20, 2026, PDF 13. A party position. [MIA-18] ↩
  7. Not established, and left out of the page: the size of the capacity shortfall and the design day; Peoples Gas System peak-day and capacity figures for the Miami area and its county territory; Florida Public Utilities; dated supply events since 2020; tariff interruption terms; the Commission's order and any staff recommendation in the rate case; delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not captured; next capture about March 2027). The 2017-18 Florida City Gas filings (Exhibit GB-3) are older than four years and are not used.
  8. Peoples Gas System, Direct Testimony of Buzard, Docket 20250029-GU, 2025, PDF 27 (service areas). [MIA-19] ↩
  9. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet, operator-reported planned dates), filtered to Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, computed by code (miami_calculations.csv). A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [MIA-21] ↩
  10. Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, news release, July 13, 2026 (Florida Energy Pathway), saved October 25, 2026. A company statement for an intrastate project; no Florida Public Service Commission filing for it was read. [MIA-25, MIA-26, MIA-27, MIA-28] ↩
  11. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Federal Register notice 2025-21763 (90 FR 55311, December 2, 2025), Florida Gas Transmission Company, LLC, Docket CP26-29-000 (SE Hialeah MAOP Reduction Project). [MIA-22] ↩
  12. Florida Power & Light Company, Ten Year Power Plant Site Plan 2026-2035, Table ES-1 (PDF 32) and the potential units table (copy hosted by NextEra Energy investor relations; the Commission's own copy was not saved). [MIA-23, MIA-24] ↩
  13. R3 not established, and left out of the claims (searches run: EIA-860M, a Federal Register search of FERC notices by county, and utility and pipeline-company pages): state air permit records, FERC eLibrary filings, each utility's own large-load request list and county economic development filings, none of which a script could save; news reports are leads only and are not claimed. Peoples Gas System's load and supply plans for its Miami service area were not found in the record read.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link ↩
  3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. Florida Public Service Commission, Docket 20260026-GU, Direct Testimony of Dan Noia (Florida City Gas). Link
  2. Florida Public Service Commission, Docket 20260026-GU, Direct Testimony of William Haffecke. Link
  3. Florida Public Service Commission, Docket 20260026-GU, Direct Testimony of Everngam. Link
  4. Florida Public Service Commission, Docket 20260026-GU, Direct Testimony of Michael P. Gorman (Federal Executive Agencies). Link
  5. Peoples Gas System, Docket 20250029-GU, Direct Testimony of Buzard. Link
  6. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  8. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link
  9. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Federal Register notice 2025-21763, Florida Gas Transmission Company, LLC, Docket CP26-29-000. Link
  10. Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, Florida Energy Pathway news release, July 13, 2026. Link
  11. Florida Power & Light Company, Ten Year Power Plant Site Plan 2026-2035. Link