Michigan natural gas case study, Detroit, Michigan. October 2026

Detroit-area natural gas capacity: a coldest-day plan with no spare supply shown and storage equipment at its limit

DTE Gas told the Michigan Public Service Commission in a revised application filed in February 2026 that in its current design day plan, processing equipment at critical storage fields is forecasted to be operating at its maximum capacity, and that approximately 63% of its supply on a January 2027 peak day will come from storage. Three of its four storage fields are in St. Clair County, a metro county. Its peak day plan shows supply equal to requirements with no unallocated supply, and the company said there is no imminent risk to the system.

0%DTE Gas's January 2027 peak day margin: supply equals requirements at 2,507 MMcf per day, by our calculation
1,497 MMcf per dayDTE Gas's January design day load, Detroit/Ann Arbor area, of 2,498 MMcf per day system-wide
63%Share of DTE Gas's January 2027 peak day supply that will come from storage, company-wide
0Planned natural gas-fired generators in the six metro counties in EIA's September 2026 inventory

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated .

Metro used: the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI metropolitan statistical area, as delineated in OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (July 21, 2023): Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne counties. The tariffs of DTE Gas Company (DTE Gas) and Consumers Energy Company (Consumers Energy) each name places in these counties, and SEMCO Energy Gas Company (SEMCO) names Port Huron; the tariffs list territory, not customers, so which utility serves which place is not established. Most figures below are company-wide statements by DTE Gas or Consumers Energy and are labeled system context where they cover areas outside the metro.1

Key takeaways

  • DTE Gas said in its revised application filed in February 2026 that in its current design day plan, processing equipment at critical storage fields is forecasted to be operating at its maximum capacity, and that redundant units do not exist for these facilities at all storage fields; the testimony covers its whole system and does not name the fields.3
  • DTE Gas said approximately 63% of its supply on a January 2027 peak day will be provided from storage, and that three of its four storage fields (Belle River, Columbus and West Columbus) are in St. Clair County, a metro county.3
  • DTE Gas's peak day supply mix for January shows 2,507 MMcf per day of supply against 2,507 MMcf per day of requirements, with unallocated supply of 0.0, a 0% margin on that day by our calculation; the company also said there is no imminent risk to the system.3
  • DTE Gas's design day load for its Detroit/Ann Arbor area is 1,497 MMcf per day in January, of 2,498 MMcf per day for its whole system. System context: the area includes Ann Arbor, which is outside the metro.2
  • Consumers Energy said its system-wide winter peak day design is about 3,600 MMcf per day and that at least 49% of its peak day design requirements is estimated to come from storage; its exhibits are not in the public redacted copy, and how much of this serves the metro is not established.6
  • In its September 10, 2026 rate case order the Commission adopted a recommendation to disallow $6 million for a turbine exchange at DTE Gas's Belle River compressor station because the project was not advanced enough, on timing; DTE Gas had said running the turbine past 30,000 hours increases the risk of forced outages during peak injection or withdrawal seasons.7

Which parts of the record fall inside the Detroit metro?

DTE Gas's tariff territory sheets (issued in 2013) name many Wayne County cities and townships, townships in Oakland County (Commerce, Highland, Lyon and Milford), Macomb County (Chesterfield and Macomb, and part of St. Clair Shores) and Livingston County (Brighton, Deerfield and Unadilla), and name no locality in Lapeer or St. Clair counties. Consumers Energy's tariff territory sheets (issued in 2019) list places in all six metro counties, including Warren, Sterling Heights, Southfield, Troy and Pontiac. SEMCO says it delivers gas in and around Port Huron, among other places.1

Where Item in the record
Inside the metro DTE Gas's Belle River, Columbus and West Columbus storage fields in St. Clair County; localities named in the DTE Gas and Consumers Energy tariffs in the six metro counties
Outside the metro, system context DTE Gas's statewide design day, supply and contracts; its Alpena, Grand Rapids, Upper Peninsula and Traverse City load areas and its Six Lakes storage field; Consumers Energy's system-wide peak day design
Unclear Which utility serves each place that both tariffs name (the DTE Gas sheets do not list Warren, Troy or Southfield; the Consumers Energy sheets do); SEMCO's county; the Detroit/Ann Arbor load area, which is wider than the metro

Record items classified by whether they fall inside the Detroit metro (OMB delineation). Sources: DTE Gas and Consumers Energy tariffs; DTE Gas revised application, February 2026.13

System context: DTE Gas's supply, storage, contract and design day statements cover its whole system. The most local figure in its record is the Detroit/Ann Arbor load area, and no supply or storage figure is allocated to the metro, so this page uses the statewide statements for those and says so. Consumers Energy's figures are system-wide and the record has nothing more local.

How much spare gas capacity does Detroit have on the coldest day?

Major natural gas pipelines serving Detroit N ANR Pipeline ANR Pipeline Vector Pipeline Vector Pipeline Other transmission pipelines in the EIA layer (interstate and intrastate; unlabeled) Pipeline named in a verified claim on this page (labeled, one color each) Metro counties (boundary used on this page) Major highways (for orientation)
Figure 1. Major natural gas pipelines serving Detroit. Simplified, not to scale. Discovery Energy illustration from EIA and U.S. Census data. Coastline, lakes and highways: Natural Earth (public domain).

DTE Gas's design day plan matches supply to requirements: for January it shows 2,507 MMcf per day of flowing and storage supply against 2,507 MMcf per day of requirements including fuel, with unallocated supply of 0.0, and the same equality in February and March. The filing prints no margin line, but its two figures give one: 2,507 minus 2,507 is 0 MMcf per day, a 0% margin on the January peak day (calculated by code, illustrative). That is below the 5% reserve that Discovery Energy's outlook scale treats as thin, and the base level of the outlook below rests on it.3

The plan leans on storage. DTE Gas said approximately 63% of its January 2027 peak day supply comes from storage, that a single storage field can account for up to 35% of total system demand on a design day, and that processing equipment at critical storage fields is forecasted to be operating at its maximum capacity, without redundant units at all fields. It did not name the fields. Three of its four storage fields are in St. Clair County.3

DTE Gas also said that it periodically assesses risks to the system and has contingencies in place to address operational challenges on a design day even as there is no imminent risk to the system, and that its design day assumptions are conservative: minimum storage balances, statewide coldest record temperatures, maximum midstream withdrawal rates and high end-use transportation withdrawal rates occur simultaneously, and the coldest temperature in each of sixteen regions is presumed to occur on the same day. For the 2026-2027 plan year it plans to hold approximately 379 MMcf per day (400 MDth per day) of firm transportation for the winter. These are company statements; the Commission's order approving the settlement, and Staff's testimony, make no finding on design day or capacity.35

For the Detroit/Ann Arbor area, DTE Gas's January design day load is 1,497 MMcf per day of 2,498 MMcf per day system-wide (1,497 divided by 2,498 is 59.9%, calculated by code, illustrative). The record allocates no supply or storage to the area.2

Consumers Energy said its winter peak day design is about 3,600 MMcf per day for its whole gas system, that at least 49% of its peak day design requirements is estimated to come from storage, and that it relies heavily on storage with limited reliance on flowing pipeline supply and limited firm contract capacity on interstate pipelines. MPSC Staff said Consumers Energy presented a reasonable and prudent peak day plan, in testimony that is partly confidential. The exhibit tables are not in the public redacted copy, so no margin can be stated, and redacted figures are not established.6

What is driving new natural gas demand?

DTE Gas projects its customer count to grow, from about 1.35 million rate schedule customers in 2025-2026 to about 1.39 million by 2029-2030, and expects its energy waste reduction program to offset the higher volumes, with a slight reduction in overall gas demand by the end of its five-year forecast. It said recent changes in the Detroit area reflect changes in peaker load, and that gas-fired generators are modeled using their most recent three years of activity; it names no new load.2 The Commission's earlier order asked DTE Gas for a ten-year Gas Delivery Plan that considers declining natural gas demand, and the September 2026 rate case order summarizes parties' arguments about that plan.7 Consumers Energy said its forecast includes new natural gas-fueled electric generation in its service territory, and names no plant, county or service date.6

A search of other official records found no documented new gas load in the six metro counties. EIA's September 2026 generator inventory lists no planned natural gas-fired generator in Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, St. Clair, Lapeer or Livingston county, and a search of Federal Register notices of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission since January 1, 2025 finds none naming a metro county and a pipeline docket.9

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The record read shows no capacity addition with a date and a budget for the metro. In its September 10, 2026 rate case order the Commission adopted the recommendation to approve $2.4 million for DTE Gas's Belle River dehydration unit project, which no party opposed. It also adopted the recommendation to disallow $6 million for the Belle River Unit #8 turbine exchange, because DTE Gas had not shown the project advanced enough to include in rate base at this time; the judge said the dispute was about timing, not necessity, and DTE Gas said completion was planned for March 2027. DTE Gas said the turbine is needed to move gas in and out of its Belle River, Columbus and West Columbus fields and will exceed the recommended 30,000 hours of run-time during the test year.7

DTE Gas renewed 50 MDth per day of ANR Southwest capacity and 17.5 MDth per day of winter Vector Alliance capacity through October 31, 2028, with rights of first refusal that it said apply in the future. By our calculation (by code), that 67.5 MDth per day is 64.0 MMcf per day at the filing's 1.054 MMBtu per Mcf, 2.55% of the January design day and 16.9% of the 400 MDth per day of firm transportation DTE Gas plans to hold for winter 2026-27. Earlier, after the 2013-2014 winter, DTE Gas purchased parking services and improved the Columbus and Belle River storage fields; these are older measures.34

System context: the Commission's order and DTE Gas's contracts are company-wide, and none of them adds capacity identified as serving the metro by a date.

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The record gives no cost figure for capacity by customer class, so none is given here. These are the positions and decisions on file:

  • The Commission's October 1, 2026 order says its September 10, 2026 final decision authorized DTE Gas to increase its annual revenues by $149.318 million for service on and after October 1, 2026, against a request of $237.5 million that included a $74.8 million infrastructure recovery mechanism roll-in.7
  • A group of large industrial customers argued that the Commission should give greater weight to a design day demand capacity allocator aligned with DTE Gas's planning criteria, in place of the average and peak allocator; this is a party's position.7
  • In the approved gas cost recovery settlement, a supplier of last resort reservation charge of an additional $0.50 per Mcf is billed to GCR customers, and $0.34 per Mcf to GCC customers; MPSC Staff noted DTE Gas's firm pipeline reservation charges of $74 million for 2026-2027 are approximately 36% higher than the $54 million of the previous plan year.5

Who bears the cost of any future storage capacity work is not decided in the record read.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

DTE Gas's tariff (Rule C3.2) sets five curtailment priorities, with Priority Five the lowest and Priority One the highest. Priority One includes residential service, plant protection, essential public health and safety uses, and commercial and industrial requirements of 1,250 Mcf or less per base period month. Priority Two covers commercial and industrial requirements above 1,250 Mcf, Priority Three those above 8,334 Mcf and Priority Four those above 41,667 Mcf, each up to the next threshold; Priority Five is non-residential customers above 41,667 Mcf with alternate fuel capability, for the alternate fuel load only.8

Consumers Energy's tariff (Rule C3) treats firm sales and transportation customers equally under five priority categories, with Priority Five curtailed first and Priority One last.8

Winter and market context

Context only, as of October 2026. It does not set the outlook level and makes no prediction of outages. Its sources are listed separately under Market and weather sources and are refreshed on the publication date.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 outlook gives the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions to Southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes, a discussion that names regions and not counties.B1 The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average.A1 These are national and regional facts, not statements about either utility's system, and none of them is used to set the outlook on this page.

What is the outlook for Detroit gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Detroit-area natural gas capacity through 2029 as High (confidence: Medium): the base level is Elevated, since DTE Gas's own design day plan shows no margin on its January 2027 peak day, with supply of 2,507 MMcf per day equal to requirements of 2,507 and no unallocated supply, a 0% margin against the 5% that the scale treats as thin, and the record read shows no approved or scheduled fix; two documented risk factors raise it by one step. DTE Gas said there is no imminent risk to its system, and the Commission's order and Staff made no finding on capacity. Documented risk factors: concentration (F1), since DTE Gas said a single storage field can account for up to 35% of total system demand on a design day, and that processing equipment at critical storage fields is forecasted to be operating at its maximum capacity, without redundant units at all fields; the field is not named and the 35% is an upper bound; and expiring supply (F2), since DTE Gas renewed 50 MDth per day of ANR Southwest capacity and 17.5 MDth per day of winter Vector Alliance capacity only through October 31, 2028, which is 16.9% of the 400 MDth per day of firm transportation it plans to hold for winter 2026-27 (by our calculation, against the 10% test for a key contract), with no replacement decided in the record read; two factors raise the base level of Elevated by one step. Context, not counted: approximately 63% of its January 2027 peak day supply comes from storage and three of its four storage fields are in St. Clair County. Three developments would change the assessment: DTE Gas's next gas cost recovery plan and its updated design day plan, including any change to the statement that storage processing equipment is at maximum capacity; any DTE Gas project to add redundant processing or storage deliverability and the Commission's action on it, and the end of the renewed pipeline capacity on October 31, 2028; the unredacted Consumers Energy peak day figures or a utility figure that allocates supply and storage to the metro.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What should Detroit-area facilities check now?

  • Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
  • Which utility, and which supply arrangement. Confirm whether each site is served by DTE Gas, Consumers Energy, SEMCO or another gas utility, and whether gas is bought from the utility or from a third-party supplier.
  • Your curtailment priority. Check each account's monthly requirement against the priority thresholds in the tariff (1,250, 8,334 and 41,667 Mcf per base period month under DTE Gas's Rule C3.2) and whether alternate fuel capability is registered.
  • Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
  • Upcoming proceedings. Track DTE Gas's next gas cost recovery plan and any project at its Belle River storage complex.

Frequently asked questions

Will Detroit businesses face natural gas shortages this winter?

The record does not show a shortage. DTE Gas's own January 2027 peak day plan shows no spare supply, a 0% margin (supply equal to requirements, calculated by code), and DTE Gas also said processing equipment at critical storage fields is forecasted to be at its maximum capacity; it said there is no imminent risk to its system. This page makes no prediction about outages.

Does DTE Gas have enough capacity for its coldest day?

Its January peak day plan shows 2,507 MMcf per day of supply against 2,507 MMcf per day of requirements, with no unallocated supply: a 0% margin on that day (calculated by code, illustrative). That sets the base level at Elevated; two documented risk factors, a single storage field that can supply up to 35% of design day demand and pipeline capacity equal to 16.9% of its firm transportation that is renewed only to October 31, 2028, raise the outlook to High. The Commission's order approving the settlement made no finding on capacity.

How much of DTE Gas's coldest day comes from storage?

DTE Gas said approximately 63% of its January 2027 peak day supply will come from storage, a company-wide figure. Three of its four storage fields are in St. Clair County. It also said a single storage field can account for up to 35% of total system demand on a design day; it did not name the field.

Which gas utility serves the Detroit area?

The DTE Gas and Consumers Energy tariffs each name places in the Detroit metro counties, and SEMCO names Port Huron. The tariffs list territory, not customers, so check your bill or ask the utility which one serves a site.

Who is cut off first if gas is short?

Under both DTE Gas's and Consumers Energy's tariffs, Priority Five is curtailed first and Priority One last. Under DTE Gas's tariff, residential customers and commercial and industrial customers using 1,250 Mcf or less per base period month are in Priority One.

Is new gas-fired power or a data center adding gas demand in the metro?

No filing read documents one. EIA's September 2026 inventory lists no planned gas-fired generator in the six metro counties, and DTE Gas and Consumers Energy name no new load in the testimony read.

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

Understand your capacity exposure

Discovery Energy reviews service elections, interruption terms and regulatory proceedings for organizations across the US and Canada, so capacity changes are understood before they reach the bill.

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Notes

  1. DTE Gas Company Rate Book, M.P.S.C. No. 1 - Gas, Territory Served sheets A-16.00 and A-17.00 (issued February 6, 2013), PDF 17 and 18; Consumers Energy Company Rate Book, M.P.S.C. No. 3 - Gas, Territory Served sheets A-12.00 to A-23.00 (issued December 13, 2019), PDF 17 to 23; SEMCO Energy Gas Company, Company Description web page. Tariff territory lists, not customer counts. [DET-01 to DET-06, DET-38 to DET-40] ↩
  2. DTE Gas, revised application in Case U-21889, filed February 17, 2026, witness Chapel, PDF 11, 23 and 45 (customer and volume forecast, peaker load, Exhibit A-5). Utility statements. [DET-07, DET-17, DET-18] ↩
  3. Same filing, witness Bratu, PDF 124, 130 to 134 and 156 (design day plan, storage, contracts, Exhibit A-15). Utility statements, company-wide. [DET-08 to DET-16, DET-20] ↩
  4. Same filing, witness Madigan, PDF 54 and PDF 82 (renewed pipeline capacity; the Vector contract). [DET-19, DET-48] ↩
  5. Michigan Public Service Commission, order approving settlement in Case U-21889 (August 6, 2026), PDF 2 and 5; MPSC Staff testimony of Laura Maio (May 7, 2026), PDF 14 and 16. A Commission order and a Staff analysis; neither makes a capacity finding. [DET-21 to DET-24] ↩
  6. Consumers Energy, application in Case U-21887 (public redacted copy, filed December 22, 2025), witness McDonnell, PDF 42, 70, 82 and 84; MPSC Staff testimony of Nyrhe U. Royal (July 15, 2026, public redacted), PDF 17; Commission order of October 1, 2026, PDF 1. Utility statements, system-wide; exhibits and confidential passages are not in the saved copies. [DET-25 to DET-30] ↩
  7. Michigan Public Service Commission, final decision in Case U-21973 (DTE Gas rate case, September 10, 2026), PDF 61, 62, 99, 274 and 301; order approving tariffs (October 1, 2026), PDF 1. [DET-41 to DET-46] ↩
  8. DTE Gas tariff, Rule C3.2 (PDF 53); Consumers Energy tariff, Rule C3 (PDF 48). [DET-31 to DET-33] ↩
  9. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to the six metro counties by code, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by county phrase, computed by code (detroit_calculations.csv). A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. [DET-34, DET-35] ↩
  10. Not established, and left out of the page: dated supply events since 2020 (none in the filings read; the Staff testimony names only the 2019 polar vortex); which storage fields are at their processing limit; the unredacted Consumers Energy exhibits; any peak day or capacity figure for SEMCO; which utility serves which place; EGLE air permits, MISO interconnection queue entries and county economic development filings (not scriptable; a news report of a SEMCO data center gas infrastructure plan in 2025 names no county and is a lead only); delivery-point utilization from pipeline postings (not captured; next capture about March 2027); the cost allocation outcome in the DTE Gas rate case beyond the positions above.

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

  1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link ↩
  2. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩

Sources

  1. Michigan Public Service Commission, Case U-21889, DTE Gas Company revised application (February 17, 2026), Staff testimony of Laura Maio (May 7, 2026) and order approving settlement (August 6, 2026). Link
  2. Michigan Public Service Commission, Case U-21887, Consumers Energy Company application (public redacted), Staff testimony of Nyrhe U. Royal, and order (October 1, 2026). Link
  3. Michigan Public Service Commission, Case U-21973, final decision of September 10, 2026 and order approving tariffs of October 1, 2026. Link
  4. DTE Gas Company, Rate Book, M.P.S.C. No. 1 - Gas. Link
  5. Consumers Energy Company, Rate Book for Natural Gas Service, M.P.S.C. No. 3 - Gas. Link
  6. SEMCO Energy Gas Company, Company Description. Link
  7. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
  9. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by county. Link